The Perfect Storm: Forces Changing our Nation's Future

This was an impressive general session at the March League for Innovations conference in Denver (March 2-5, 2008). Irwin Kirsch, Director of the Center for Global Assessment at the Educational Testing Service was the very engaging presenter.
There are three main forces that are changing our nation's future according to data gathered and analyzed by Dr. Kirsch:

• Divergent skill distributions
• the Changing Economy
• Demographic Trends

The first force will certainly have a major impact on community colleges: the wide disparity in literacy and numeracy skills among our school-age and adult populations. We are losing ground. High school graduation rates were at 77% in 1969 and fell back to 70% in 1995 and stayed their in this decade. Among disadvantaged minorities the rate is thought to be closer to 50%. What an extraordinary impact this will have on the future workforce!

The second force is the changing economy which Kirsch describes as "seismic." There has been a radical shift in the balance between capital and labor driven by both technological innovation and globalization. It is clear from Kirsch's analysis that there is a far larger number of jobs that require a college education. It is predicted that college labor market clusters will generate about 46% of all job growth between 2004 and 2014. He notes that higher earnings will go to those who have the degrees and the "higher cognitive skills." These are not only the folks who will have good paying jobs they will also be the folks given the most opportunities for further learning.

The third force involves "sweeping demographic changes." The U.S. population is projected to reach 360 million in 2030 (up from 300 million in 2005). The population will become increasingly older and more diverse. The labor force is projected to grow more slowly in the next 20 years. The U.S. Census Bureau believes that between 2000-2015 net international migration will account for more than half of the nation's population growth. A large percent of that internation population will be Hispanic (around 20% by 2030). The challenge historically with this ethnic group is the low percentage who have a high school diploma.

Kirsch makes clear that separately these forces are powerful, together they are indeed the "perfect storm." He concludes: "While new policies focusing only on education and skills will not solve all the challenges associated with existing inequalities, if our society's overall levels of learning and skills are not increased and the existing gaps are not narrowed, there is little chance that economic opportunities will improve among key segments of our population." We have our work cut out for us at the community colleges across the nation.